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A new study of New Mexico’s universal childcare program finds that lower-income mothers increased employment, full-time work and weekly hours after the policy took effect. Higher-income mothers reduced those measures, a pattern the researcher says may reflect new options to study or spend more time with children; the reasons and longer-term effects remain uncertain.
A new study of New Mexico’s universal childcare program finds that lower-income mothers increased their employment and work hours after the policy took effect, while higher-income mothers worked less on several measures. The findings offer an early look at how the first statewide program of its kind in the United States is affecting families’ choices about work, education and caregiving.
Arizona State University professor Chris Herbst, who researches childcare policy, analyzed monthly U.S. Census Bureau data from May 2019 through August 2026. He compared mothers’ work outcomes in New Mexico before and after the policy began, and compared those trends with mothers outside the state. The paper’s findings, as reported by The 74, show markedly different changes by income group.
For lower-income mothers, the study reports an 18% rise in labor-force participation and an 18% rise in employment after the policy. Full-time employment increased by 23%, while weekly work hours rose by 15%. The report does not specify in the provided material whether these percentages are percentage-point changes or relative changes, so they should not be read as either without further detail.
Among higher-income mothers, the study found an 8% decline in labor-force participation, a 17% decline in full-time work and a 10% reduction in weekly hours. Herbst suggested that some may have reduced work to spend more time with children or to attend school. The study’s reported figures describe changes in work outcomes; they do not establish which explanation applies to individual families.
Different Work Effects by Income
The findings suggest that affordable childcare can affect whether parents can take paid work, not just how they arrange care after taking a job. Herbst said the earlier cost of care had posed a financial barrier for lower-income mothers, who could struggle to find care they could afford on available wages. The increases reported in the study indicate that removing that cost may have enabled more of these mothers to work.
The decline among higher-income mothers complicates any simple account of the program as a way to increase employment across the board. It may reflect families using the added flexibility to reduce work, pursue education or spend more time at home. Whether those choices lead to later career or family benefits is not yet established by the reported findings.
The policy’s effects matter beyond New Mexico because it gives researchers a rare U.S. case to examine. Earlier evidence on universal childcare has largely come from programs elsewhere, including Quebec. But an early change in employment is not the same as a full accounting of public costs and benefits, and Herbst cautioned that it is too soon to know whether New Mexico’s program will pay for itself.
affordable childcare for low-income families
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A New U.S. Policy Test
New Mexico launched the program last November, becoming, according to the source report, the first state in the country to enact universal childcare. The policy provides free care, while requiring adults in a household to work or take part in other activities, such as schooling, to qualify. The report says there is no minimum number of hours for those activities, allowing them to be part-time.
Herbst has described the state as a valuable opportunity to study universal childcare in a U.S. setting. Past research has examined international programs, including Quebec’s subsidized childcare system, and the Lanham Act, a U.S. wartime initiative that funded childcare centers during World War II. The source report says New Mexico did not participate in the Lanham Act. Those earlier cases provide context, but their results do not by themselves predict what the current program will do.
The new analysis focuses on mothers’ work outcomes. Possible effects on children’s development, education and later earnings could take much longer to measure. The source report says such outcomes may be possible areas of benefit, but they are not established by the employment findings now available.
““Disadvantaged families can now afford to work.””
— Chris Herbst, as quoted by The 74
Reasons and Long-Term Effects
The available account does not provide the paper’s full methods, confidence intervals, sample sizes or detailed definitions for the reported percentage changes. It also does not establish why higher-income mothers reduced work, or whether the changes will persist as the program continues. The reported declines could reflect schooling, more time at home or other factors, but those explanations remain possibilities rather than confirmed causes.
It is also too early to determine the program’s net fiscal effect or its effects on children’s development and later outcomes. Those questions require additional evidence and, for some outcomes, years of follow-up. The figures reported here are findings from an analysis, not proof that the policy alone caused every observed change.
Further Study of Families
Researchers can continue tracking work patterns as more data become available, testing whether the early differences between income groups hold over time. A fuller evaluation would also need to examine program participation, childcare availability and costs, family earnings and public spending to clarify how the policy operates and who benefits.
Longer follow-up will be needed to assess possible effects on children’s education and later outcomes. For now, the study offers an early measure of how mothers’ work changed after New Mexico introduced the program, while leaving its causes, durability and overall cost-effectiveness open for further research.
Key Questions
What did the study find for lower-income mothers?
The study reported 18% increases in labor-force participation and employment, a 23% increase in full-time employment and a 15% rise in weekly work hours after the policy took effect. The source material does not clarify whether those percentages are relative changes or percentage-point changes.
What changed for higher-income mothers?
The analysis reported declines in labor-force participation, full-time work and weekly hours: 8%, 17% and 10%, respectively. The study did not establish why mothers reduced work.
Why might some mothers have worked less?
Researcher Chris Herbst suggested some may have spent more time with their children or attended school. These are possible explanations, not confirmed reasons for the reported change.
Does the study show that the program pays for itself?
No. Herbst said it is too early to tell whether New Mexico’s program will pay for itself. That question requires more evidence about public costs and effects such as employment and tax revenue.
What remains to be studied?
Researchers still need to assess whether the work changes last, what drives them and how the program affects family finances, public spending and children’s longer-term outcomes.
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